ANALYSIS OF IMPACT OF INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH TO VOLUME SALES BRAND MOTORCYCLE IN INDONESIA PERIOD 2002-2011

 INTRODUCTION

Indonesia is a country that is experiencing growth. Technological progress and development in the field of transportation, making it easy for its citizens where - where. Transportation in Indonesia are generally composed of a variety there is in the land, air, and sea. Existing transportation on land generally consisting of cars, motorcycles, etc. Motor is one of the ground transportation that is often used by the public in general. The use of motorcycles in Indonesia by the community itself is quite large. motors today is not a luxury transportation. Many Indonesian people almost entirely using the motor. Land transportation that is widely enjoyed by the whole community in Indonesia. Not only men, but now many women who like finding anywhere using the motor. Instead now awarded special motors hearts society. The use of motorcycles in Indonesia in general due to the traffic situation became increasingly out of control, the result of ever-increasing congestion. This makes the bike as a means of transportation that can help provide the best solution for road users in Indonesia, which every day always move slightly with congestion.

Today the use of motorcycles in Indonesia is quite large motorcycle manufacturers are racing to innovate to create new designs. One motorcycle brand that is familiar is Honda, Honda is the leading motorcycle brands with designnya nice, elegant and easy way to purchase sufficient credit system to date advances given varied ranging from five hundred thousand dollars (500,000 ) and others. Later installments given enough light making it easier for people to buy. high level of consumer interest to buy a motorcycle impact on the motorbike sales volume. facts prove the volume of sales of Honda motorcycles experienced a significant increase from 2010 sales volume according to AISI (Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association) and amounted to 3,416,049 units in 2011, Honda managed to get the sales volume of 4,276,136 units.

The volume of sales of Honda motorcycles are always associated with economic variables. related economic variables such as inflation and economic growth. Proven in 2011 of the inflation data contained in Bank Indonesia, the year the inflation rate does not fluctuate too much. According Sadono Sukirno (2008) is the economic growth is the development of activities in the economy that provide goods and services. Meanwhile economic growth by Prof. Simon Kuznets (in Jhingan, 2000: 57) is a long-term increase in the ability of a State to provide more and more types of goods - economic goods to its population. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said that economic growth in 2011 is estimated at around 6.5 percent. Economic growth in the year was the highest economic growth after the 1998 crisis. This directly affects the purchasing power of Indonesian society.

The influence of the rate of inflation and economic growth in the purchasing power of the people determines the high or the low volume of sales of branded Honda motorcycles. And it can be concluded that the authors of these problems make a scientific study entitled “Analysis Of Impact Of Inflation And Economic Growth To Volume Sales Brand Motorcycle In Indonesia Period 2002-2011”.

DISCUSSION

This research discusses the influence of the inflation rate in the period 2002-2011 the volume of sales of Honda motorcycles, Effect of Indonesia's economic growth rate in the period of 10 years (2002-2011) to the volume of sales of Honda motorcycles, as well as see how much impact of both the economic variables (inflation and growth) of the Honda motorcycle sales volume in the period 2002-2011. It can be concluded that the purpose of this research is that if the volume of sales of PT Astra Honda Motor has decreased its cause can be seen from the rate of inflation is going. If within a period of 10 years (2002-2011) the rate of inflation in Indonesia apparently experienced significant fluctuations that means the volume of sales for Honda motorcycles will decline. If the inflation rate has decreased which means that the sales volume will have a positive impact.

While when it comes to issues of economic growth in the long run for the growing number of manufacturers producing Honda motorcycle with a lot of its kind within a certain time then there will be an increase in the purchasing power of people in particular to buy a motorcycle as well as the results obtained are the sales volume will increase. But the decline in population growth rates based on annual data visible impact on the decline of motorcycle sales volume is not too large. This is due to the interest of the consumer purchasing power or owned luxury goods consumption due to the current motorcycle including the most important needs.

Based on economic theory in general can be interpreted as a field of study of the management of material resources of individuals, communities, and countries to improve human welfare. Because economics is a science of human behavior and actions to meet their needs are varied and expanding existing resources through several options of production, consumption and distribution.

According to the father of economics, Adam Smith sense of the economy itself is an investigation of the circumstances and because of the state of the country. While Abraham Maslow defines economics as one of the areas of study that tried to solve the problem of the principle purposes of human life through the forging of all economic resources available is based on certain principles and theory in an economic system that is effective and efficient. Economy in general is divided into two parts namely macroeconomic and microeconomic. In the only study of microeconomic behavior of consumers and the enterprise and determination of market prices and the quantity of factor inputs, goods, and services are bought and sold. While the macro economy is the study of the economy as a whole. Macroeconomic explain the economic changes that affect many households, firms and markets. Macroeconomics can be used to analyze how best to meet the target of wisdom such as economic growth, price stability, balance of labor achieving sustainable.

In general, inflation can be interpreted as an increase in the level of prices of goods and services in general and continuously for a certain time. Meanwhileis expressed as the increase in price inflation in general. There are three components that must be met in order to be able to say of inflation, (Prathama and Mandala 2001:203), (a) An increase in the price, Price of a commodity is said to be higher up if the price of the previous period. (b) Impersonal, An increase in the price of a commodity can not be said if inflation does not lead to the increase in the general price rise. (c) Repeatedly lasts, General price increase will also not raise inflation. If it happens just because the inflation calculation is done in a span of at least monthly.

Inflationary conditions based on the nature of inflation is divided into three parts, namely:

1. Creep (Creeping Inflation)

The inflation rate is low (less than 10% per year), the price increase is slow with a small percentage as well as in the long term.

2. High inflation (Galloping inflation)

Characterized by substantial price increase and sometimes - sometimes running in a relatively short time and have the nature of acceleration, which means the prices of weeks / months is higher than weeks / months ago and so on.

3. High inflation (Hyper inflation)

Inflation is the most severe with marked up prices to 5 or 6 times and the value of money fell sharply. This situation usually arises when the government is running a budget defifit.

There are several factors that contributed to inflation include:

a) Demand Pull Inflation

Arises when aggregate demand growing faster than the economy's productive potential, attractive price upward to balance supply and aggregate demand.

b) Cost Plus Inflation or Inflation Supply Shock

Inflation is caused by an increase in costs during periods of high unemployment and the use of resources that are less effective.

While factors - factors that cause inflation not only influenced Demand Pull Inflation Inflation and Cost Plus but also influenced by:

a) Domestic inflation

Inflation rate because it is caused by a general increase in the price of goods in the country.

b) Imported inflation

Inflation rate akbat price hike - import prices in general.

Based originally classified into two namely inflation from the inflation and domestic inflation from abroad. Inflation comes from the example country occurred due to the budget deficit financed by printing new money and market failures that cause food prices to be expensive. Meanwhile inflation from abroad is inflation that occurs as a result of rising prices of imported goods. This bias occurs due to high cost of production overseas or any increase in freight tariffs.

Inflation can also be divided based on the amount of coverage of the effect on prices if the price increase happens only with one or two specific items, referred to as inflation is closed (Close Inflation). However, if the price increase occurred in all goods in general, inflation is called the open inflation (Open Inflation). Whereas if inflation occurs very severe attack that makes any price is always changing and increasing, and all people can not hold money longer continue to decline due to the value of money is called uncontrolled inflation (hyperinflation).

Inflation based on the severity of disease classification can be divided into:

a. Mild inflation (the inflation rate is less than 10% per year)

b. Moderate inflation (inflation rate of between 10% - 30% per year)

c. Severe inflation (the inflation rate between 30% - 100% per year)

d. Hyperinflation (inflation rate of over 100% per year)

Inflation is measured by calculating the percentage change in the level of change in a price index. Level of the price index are:

a. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

b. Cost of living index

c. Producer Price Index

d. Commodity Price Index

e. Goods Price Index - Capital goods

f. GDP deflator

Inflation has a positive impact and negative effects, depending on whether or not severe inflation. If inflation is mild, it has a positive effect in terms of stimulating the economy could be better, which is to increase the national income and get people excited for the work, saving and investment holding. Conversely, in a period of severe inflation, which in the event of uncontrolled inflation (hyperinflation), the state of the economy became chaotic and felt sluggish economy. People are not excited about working, saving, or investments and production because prices are rising rapidly. The fixed-income recipients such as civil servants or private sector employees and workers will also overwhelmed bore and offset the price so that their lives become increasingly slipped and fell from time to time.

Inflation also causes people reluctant to save because the value of the currency goes down. Indeed, savings earn interest, but if the interest rate above inflation, the value of money is still declining. In general, inflation can result in reduced investment in a country, pushing up interest rates, encouraging speculative investment, development implementation failures, the economic instability, balance of payments deficits, and declining living standards and welfare of the community.

Economic growth is the process of changing economic conditions of a country on an ongoing basis towards a better state for a certain period. Economic growth can be defined as well as increase the production capacity of an economy that is realized in the form of increase in national income. Economic growth is an indication of the success of economic development. According Sadono Sukirno (2008) is the economic growth is the development of economic activities in the supply of goods and services is a way to compare economic growth Gross National Product (GNP) current year with the previous year GNP.

Further economic development is defined as a process leading to increased per capita income of the population in the long term. Here are three important elements related to economic development.

Factors - factors of economic growth
a) factor resources
Similar to the process of development, economic growth is also influenced by the SDM. Human resources is the most important factor in the development process, how quickly the development process depends on the extent of human resource development as a subject having sufficient competence to carry out the development process.
b) Factors Natural Resources
Most developing countries relying on natural resources in carrying out the development process. However, natural resources alone does not guarantee the success of the process of economic development, if not supported by kemampaun human resources in managing the natural resources available. Natural resources is dinataranya soil fertility, mineral wealth, mining, forest wealth and riches of the sea.
c) Factors of Science and Technology
Developments in science and technology fosters rapid acceleration of the development process, change the pattern of the original work using the human hand is replaced by advanced machinery affect the efficiency aspect, the quality and quantity of a series of economic development activities undertaken and ultimately result in the acceleration of the growth rate economy.
d) Cultural Factors
Cultural factors provide a disparate impact on economic development is done, these factors can serve as generators or propulsion development process but can also be a constraint to development. Culture that may encourage the development of such an attitude of hard work and smart work, honest, tenacious, and so on. The culture that can hinder the development process including anarchist attitude, selfish, wasteful, corruption, and so on.
e) Capital Resources
Human capital resources needed to process natural resources and improve the quality of science and technology. Capital resources in the form of capital goods is essential for the development and smooth running of economic development because capital goods can also increase productivity.

Theory of economic growth is divided into two:

a) Classical Theory

By Adam Smith

Adam Smith's theory assumes that economic growth is actually based on the population growth. With the population growth there will be increase output or outcome. Adam Smith's theory contained in his book An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations.

According to David Ricardo

Ricardo argued that population growth factor growing up to be doubled at a time will

cause abundant workforce. Surplus labor would result in wages being down. Wages can only be used to finance the minimum standard of living so that the economy will experience stagnation (statonary state). David Ricardo's theory outlined in his book The Principles of Political and Taxation.

b) Neoclassical Theory

According to Robert Solow

Robert Solow argued that economic growth is a series of activities that are rooted in human capital accumulation, the use of modern technology and the result or output. The population growth can have a positive impact and can have a negative impact. Therefore, according to Robert Solow population growth should be used as a positive resource.

According to Domar Harrord This theory assumes that the capital should be used effectively, because economic growth is strongly influenced by the role of capital formation. It also discusses the theory of national income and employment. Robert Solow developed a model of economic growth known as the Solow growth model.

Pengertian penjualan menurut Chairul Marom dalam buku “Sistem Akuntansi Perusahaan Dagang” menyatakan bahwa “Penjualan artinya penjualan barang dagangan sebagai usaha pokok perusahaan yang biasanya dilakukan secara teratur”.

There are several types of private sales by Basu (2010), namely:

a.       Trade Selling

Can occur when manufacturers and wholesalers invite retailers to strive to improve their products distributor. This involves dealers with promotional activities, demonstrations, inventory and procurement of new products, so the emphasis on "selling through" channels rather than "selling to" end buyers.

b.      Missionary Selling

In the missionary tried selling sales improved by encouraging shoppers to buy goods from the supplier company. In this case the company has its own channel in the distribution of its products.

c.       Technical Selling

Trying to boost sales by giving suggestions and advice to final buyers of goods and services by showing how products and services are offered to resolve the issue.

d.      New Business Selling

Trying to open a new transaction by converting potential buyers into buyers. This type of sale is often used by insurance companies.

e.       Responsive Selling

Two main types of sales here is "route driving" and "retailling". Types of sales like this will not create too big sales despite the good service and pleasant customer relationships can lead to repeated buyers.

The factors that influence sales

In practice sales planning was influenced by several factors. According to Basu Swastha (1998:129) these factors are:

1.    Conditions and the ability of sellers

Buying and selling a commercial transfer of property rights on goods and services, in principle involves two parties, namely the seller as a buyer as a first-party and second party. Here, the seller must be able to convince the buyers in order to achieve expected sales targets. To this effect, the seller must understand some very important issues related to the:

a.       Types and characteristics of the items to be offered

b.      Price products

c.       Terms of the sale such as: payment, delivery, after-sales service and so on

2.      Market Conditions

Market as a buyer or a group of parties that were targeted in sales can also affect sales activities. The factors to consider market conditions are Type of market, whether the consumer market, sellers market, industrial market, government market / international market.

a.       Group buyers or market segments

b.      purchasing power

c.       Frequency of purchase

d.      The desire and need.

3.      Capital

It would be difficult for the seller to sell the goods if the goods were sold was not known by the buyer or if the buyer's location away from the seller's premises in circumstances such as these, the seller must first introduce / bring the goods to the place the buyer.

4.      Conditions Company Organization

In large companies, the problem addressed by the sales department sales held by certain persons / experts in the sale of another case with small companies selling issues addressed by the people who also perform other functions. This is due to less labor.

5.      other factors

The factors that often affect the perikalanan sales, demonstrations, campaigns, and gift-giving. However, to implement the necessary funding not less. For a company that has a strong capital these activities can be done on a regular basis instead of small companies rarely do because it has little capital.

As for sales that occurred in various fields one of which is the sale of Honda motorcycles. Honda is a type of motorcycle that was produced by PT Astra Honda Motor (AHM) is the pioneer of the motorcycle industry in Indonesia. Founded on June 11, 1971 with the initial name of PT Federal Motor, whose stock is majority owned by PT Astra International. annual sales of Honda motorcycles has always been excellent. Interests are many and easy ways to buy enough to make Honda motorcycles favorite Indonesian citizens today. Recorded in 2011 Honda managed to excel in sales of some existing motor unit number of 4,276,136 units or 53.16% of the total available market.

Dwi Novianti of case studies (2010) on "ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND EFFECT ON DEPARTURE JAMA'AT HAJI IN WEST JAVA" in this case the author states the influence or not the economic indicators of the departure of pilgrims in Java western based on the results of the analysis are obtained every increase in inflation would reduce the number of pilgrims departure amounted to 240 254 in western Java and any economic growth will increase the number of pilgrims departure of 3,604,327. As for the value of the coefficient of determination of economic growth of 30.5% and the coefficient of determination remedy inflation of 1.9%. Therefore concluded that the economic indicators greatly affect the number of pilgrims departure western Java is economic growth.

1.      Linear Regression Equation

Y = a  +  bX₁  +  bX²  +  e

Y = Sales of Honda motorcycles in 2002-2011

a = constant

b1, b2 = regression coefficient of each independent variable

X1 = Inflation (2002-2011)

X2 = Economic Growth (2002-2011)

e = Standard error

2.      Hypothesis testing in partial

a. Inflation and sales of Honda motorcycles

H0: There is no effect of inflation on sales of Honda motorcycles

H1: The effect of inflation on sales of Honda motorcycles

b. Economic growth and sales of Honda motorcycles

H0: There is no effect of economic growth on sales of Honda motorcycles

H1: The effect of economic growth on sales of Honda motorcycles

3.      Simultaneous hypothesis testing

a. Inflation and economic growth in the sales of Honda motorcycles

H0: There is no effect between inflation and economic growth in the sales of Honda motorcycles

H1: The influence between inflation and economic growth in the sales of Honda motorcycles

Test criteria is calculated value is greater than the value of the table means that H1 is accepted while the calculated value is smaller when H1 is rejected, which means not occur significantly influence.

CONCLUSION

If within a period of 10 years of inflation fluctuations do not occur then the hypothesis that there is no effect of inflation on sales of Honda motorcycles can be through the picture will be accepted. If it turns out it will affect inflation fluctuates.

In the meantime if there is an increase in economic growth in Indonesia Honda motorcycle sales will increase because the picture could be as assessments for hypotheses that have been made​​. In contrast a significant decrease can make sales of Honda motorcycles decreased but the percentage decline is not too big compared the effect of inflation.

If the positive impact it could suffer losses manufacturer Honda. This is certainly in line with the increase in inflation could occur especially in 2002-2011, but this problem can be solved if the government curb inflation by encouraging employers to raise their production, depress wages, price controls and also set a maximum price. How to further organize receipts and government spending. Government spending that does not add to the budget deficit is not. Raising taxes, by raising consumer taxes will reduce the amount of consumption as part of their income to pay taxes.

Meanwhile if the positive influence that occurs between the economic growth of the sales of Honda motorcycles that will lead to increase in sales of Honda motorcycles and directly benefit the producers make. Can be suggested to the Honda motorcycle manufacturer in order to track the distribution is well. It can directly satisfy consumers when deciding to purchase a product that is renowned Honda motorcycles. As for the parties advised the government to be able to optimize every region in Indonesia is that communities become increasingly prevalent with increasing economic growth.

BIBLIOGRAFI

Chairul Marom, (2002), Sistem Akuntansi Perusahaan Dagang, Edisi ke-dua,  Penerbit Grasindo, Jakarta

Dwi Noviani, 2010, “Indikator dan Pengaruhnya Keberangkatan Jamaah Haji diprovinsi Jawa Barat”, Gunadarma University Library Paper : Jakarta

http://www.aisi.or.id/.Asosiasi Industri Sepeda Motor Indonesia (AISI), Data Penjualan Sepeda Motor Honda 2002-2011 (diakses tanggal 24 Juni pukul 19.30 WIB)

http://purwasuka.web.id/15/11/2009/mengenal-teori-penjualan/ (diakses tanggal 24 Juni pukul 19.30 WIB)

http://PT. Astra Honda Motor, Profil Perusahaan Astra Honda (diakses tanggal 24 Juni pukul 19.30 WIB)

Rahardja, Prathama, dan Manurung Mandala, 2008. Teori Ekonomi Makro. Jakarta: Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia

Swastha, Basu. 2010. Manajemen Penjualan. Edisi Ketiga. Yogyakarta : BPFE Yogyakarta

Sukirno, Sadono. 2008. Makro Ekonomi, Teori Pengantar. Edisi Ketiga. Jakarta: PT. Raja Grafindo Persada.

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